Opinion : Is there an 'alt season' in crypto?
Thread Rating:
  • 27 Vote(s) - 2.89 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#1
Cryptos 
This post is going to discuss alts, but only in the context of their ratios, and contains useful information for those who are trading BTC against alts either short or long, with the objective of acquiring more BTC.

I made a spreadsheet of the top 10 alts, leaving out USDT and BNB. The dataset I used is the all time historical data from CMC for each coin. I am posting some conclusions from it comparing their BTC ratios over a long term

Summary:

every alt checked has a median negative return in terms of its BTC ratio (even the ones with lifetime BTC ratio gains);

every alt shows ~80 to 87% loss of BTC ratio from all time high (BSV is an outlier. Do you really think it won't keep falling?);

The above two points are related, and taken together mean that, on average, each day you are more likely than not to lose BTC value in every alt examined;

as a corollary from the above, the fact that some alts haven't given up 100% of their BTC gains means that the days they do increase, they increase disproportionately, but not all alts do this, and none of the alts have done so since their respective ATH;

the timing of the ATH's indicates there was no alt season. What actually happened was a series of pump and dumps brought on by the ICO craze. The fact that some peaked well before the BTC ATH, and some peaked well after, combined with how quickly they collapsed, indicates there was no "season. By the time ETH was at ATH, XRP was already down 55% from its ATH. By the time BCH was peaking, ETH was already down 67% from its ATH. When XLM and TRX peaked, BCH was already down 34% from its ATH (just 14 days later!). When EOS was hitting its ATH, XLM was down 19% and TRX was down 29%.

Leaving aside LTC and BSV as outliers (too early and too late respectively), "alt season" ran:

May 17, 2017 XRP ATH;

June 12, 2017 ETH ATH;

December 20, 2017 BCH ATH;

January 3, 2018 XLM ATH;

January 4, 2018 TRX ATH;

April 29, 2018 EOS ATH;

My conclusion is that alts will have pump and dumps from time to time, but almost without exception decrease in value relative to Bitcoin. This makes them a very poor indicator for those looking to trade the ratios to acquire more BTC. The pump will come out of nowhere and fade away just as fast. Missed opportunities can quickly turn what would have been a profitable flip into a massive loss.

Similarly, the unpredictability of these pumps makes leveraged shorts dangerous as fuck. Very few readers can survive their short going under water by 300 or 400%. There seems to be a lot of long term profit in BTC in shorting these things, but tight stops and willingness to reexamine the market is crucial.

If you can catch the right pump and abandon your alt before it dumps, you can increase your BTC stack. The time frame for doing so is small. If you can catch the right pump and short the shit out of it, you could make a ton of BTC.

If a coin has a major (200% pump), every pump after that one is less than the previous.

Alt season was never really a thing, and is simply a by-product of having thousands of shitcoin ICOs all entering the market at the same time. The timing of the pumps among the coins doesn't even line up well with anything.

My theory: alt coins will generally have unpredictable temporary breakouts to historic ATH on the BTC ratio. After the breakout they will continue their gradual slide from ATH to 0BTC.

There is no evidence to suggest that the coins that reached significant ATH and withdrew more than 80% will ever see another such pump again.

ETH
  • 1,440 day price history (August 7, 2015)
  • 639 days where ETHBTC ratio improved
  • 800 days where ETHBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where ETHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 14, 2015 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in ETHBTC is 99.63% of the previous day (0.37% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in ETHBTC has never been above 100% since August 21, 2015 (15 days after price started being tracked)
  • current ETHBTC ratio is 212.13% of ETHBTC ratio compared to August 7, 2015 (112.13% gain)
  • max ETHBTC ratio was 0.150957 on June 12, 2017 (764 days ago)
  • current ETHBTC ratio is 13.92% of max ETHBTC ratio (86.08% loss)
XRP
  • 2,173 day price history (August 4, 2013)
  • 943 days where XRPBTC ratio improved
  • 1,229 days where XRPBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where XRPBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since October 14, 2013 (72 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in XRPBTC is 99.62% of the previous day (0.38% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in XRPBTC has never been above 100% since October 17, 2013 (75 days after price started being tracked)
  • current XRPBTC ratio is 56.0% of XRPBTC ratio compared to August 4, 2013 (44.0% loss)
  • max XRPBTC ratio was 0.00021431 on May 17, 2017 (764 days ago)
  • current XRPBTC ratio is 14.61% of max XRPBTC ratio (85.39% loss)
BCH
  • 724 day price history (July 23, 2017)
  • 325 days where BCHBTC ratio improved
  • 398 days where BCHBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where BCHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked
  • median price each day in BCHBTC is 99.55% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in BCHBTC has never been above 100% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked)
  • current BCHBTC ratio is 19.6% of BCHBTC ratio compared to July 23, 2017 (80.4% loss)
  • max BCHBTC ratio was 0.23597981 on December 20, 2017 (573 days ago)
  • current BCHBTC ratio is 12.60% of max BCHBTC ratio (87.40% loss)
LTC
  • 2,271 day price history (April 28, 2013)
  • 982 days where LTCBTC ratio improved

  • 1,288 days where LTCBTC ratio decreased

  • the number of days where LTCBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since May 1, 2013 (4 days after price started being tracked)

  • median price each day in LTCBTC is 99.71% of the previous day (0.39% decrease per day)

  • the median daily change in LTCBTC has never been above 100% since May 2, 2013 (5 days after price started being tracked)

  • current LTCBTC ratio is 25.9% of LTCBTC ratio compared to April 28, 2013 (74.1% loss)

  • max LTCBTC ratio was 0.04204661 on November 28, 2013 (2,056 days ago)

  • current LTCBTC ratio is 19.95% of max LTCBTC ratio (80.05% loss)
EOS
  • 745 day price history (July 2, 2017)
  • 322 days where EOSBTC ratio improved
  • 422 days where EOSBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where EOSBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since July 6, 2017 (5 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in EOSBTC is 99.56% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in EOSBTC has never been above 100% since July 7, 2017 (6 days after price started being tracked)
  • current EOSBTC ratio is 93.6% of EOSBTC ratio compared to July 2, 2017 (6.4% loss)
  • max EOSBTC ratio was 0.00228685 on April 29, 2018 (443 days ago)
  • current EOSBTC ratio is 16.98% of max EOSBTC ratio (83.02% loss)
BSV
  • 249 day price history (November 9, 2018)
  • 84 days where BSVBTC ratio improved
  • 166 days where BSVBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where BSVBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in BSVBTC is 99.15% of the previous day (0.85% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in BSVBTC has never been above 100% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
  • current BSVBTC ratio is 109.1% of BSVBTC ratio compared to November 9, 2018 (9.1% gain)
  • max BSVBTC ratio was 0.03276992 on November 13, 2018 (245 days ago)
  • current BSVBTC ratio is 35.85% of max BSVBTC ratio (64.15% loss)
XLM
  • 1,807 day price history (August 5, 2014)
  • 792 days where XLMBTC ratio improved
  • 1,104 days where XLMBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where XLMBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in XLMBTC is 99.47% of the previous day (0.53% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in XLMBTC has never been above 100% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
  • current XLMBTC ratio is 198.3% of XLMBTC ratio compared to August 5, 2014 (9.1% gain)
  • max XLMBTC ratio was 0.00005896 on January 3, 2018 (559 days ago)
  • current XLMBTC ratio is 14.02% of max XLMBTC ratio (85.98% loss)
TRX
  • 672 day price history (September 13, 2017)
  • 286 days where TRXBTC ratio improved
  • 385 days where TRXBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where TRXBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in TRXBTC is 99.43%of the previous day (0.57% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in TRXBTC has never been above 100% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • current TRXBTC ratio is 436.9% of TRXBTC ratio compared to September 12, 2017 (336.9% gain)
  • max TRXBTC ratio was 0.00001333 on January 4, 2018 (558 days ago)
  • current TRXBTC ratio is 16.78% of max TRXBTC ratio (83.22% loss)

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/...here_ever/


Attached Files Image(s)
                               
hodling till Im odling
ethereum, nano
Reply
New Reply 


[-]
Quick Reply
Message
Type your reply to this message here.

Human Verification
Please tick the checkbox that you see below. This process is used to prevent automated spam bots.