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y Bitcoin History of Bitcoin Price
Posted by: Rox - 3 hours ago - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

How the Bitcoin price was changing
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009
The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.



At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.



The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010
In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.



As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.



In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011
BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.



The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012
In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognised by European regulators.

2013
February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.



On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.



Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.



But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

2014
During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.



Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015
At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016
In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017
The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. December 11, 2017, became a historic day: within a few hours, the price moved up from 5,700 to 19,000 dollars. On December 16, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was above 20,000 US dollars.



How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:



In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;

China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;

In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;

The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.



However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018
During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays
What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.



There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:



Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;

Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;

and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.

As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/..._changing/

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Cryptos Is there an 'alt season' in crypto?
Posted by: Rox - 3 hours ago - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

This post is going to discuss alts, but only in the context of their ratios, and contains useful information for those who are trading BTC against alts either short or long, with the objective of acquiring more BTC.

I made a spreadsheet of the top 10 alts, leaving out USDT and BNB. The dataset I used is the all time historical data from CMC for each coin. I am posting some conclusions from it comparing their BTC ratios over a long term

Summary:

every alt checked has a median negative return in terms of its BTC ratio (even the ones with lifetime BTC ratio gains);

every alt shows ~80 to 87% loss of BTC ratio from all time high (BSV is an outlier. Do you really think it won't keep falling?);

The above two points are related, and taken together mean that, on average, each day you are more likely than not to lose BTC value in every alt examined;

as a corollary from the above, the fact that some alts haven't given up 100% of their BTC gains means that the days they do increase, they increase disproportionately, but not all alts do this, and none of the alts have done so since their respective ATH;

the timing of the ATH's indicates there was no alt season. What actually happened was a series of pump and dumps brought on by the ICO craze. The fact that some peaked well before the BTC ATH, and some peaked well after, combined with how quickly they collapsed, indicates there was no "season. By the time ETH was at ATH, XRP was already down 55% from its ATH. By the time BCH was peaking, ETH was already down 67% from its ATH. When XLM and TRX peaked, BCH was already down 34% from its ATH (just 14 days later!). When EOS was hitting its ATH, XLM was down 19% and TRX was down 29%.

Leaving aside LTC and BSV as outliers (too early and too late respectively), "alt season" ran:

May 17, 2017 XRP ATH;

June 12, 2017 ETH ATH;

December 20, 2017 BCH ATH;

January 3, 2018 XLM ATH;

January 4, 2018 TRX ATH;

April 29, 2018 EOS ATH;

My conclusion is that alts will have pump and dumps from time to time, but almost without exception decrease in value relative to Bitcoin. This makes them a very poor indicator for those looking to trade the ratios to acquire more BTC. The pump will come out of nowhere and fade away just as fast. Missed opportunities can quickly turn what would have been a profitable flip into a massive loss.

Similarly, the unpredictability of these pumps makes leveraged shorts dangerous as fuck. Very few readers can survive their short going under water by 300 or 400%. There seems to be a lot of long term profit in BTC in shorting these things, but tight stops and willingness to reexamine the market is crucial.

If you can catch the right pump and abandon your alt before it dumps, you can increase your BTC stack. The time frame for doing so is small. If you can catch the right pump and short the shit out of it, you could make a ton of BTC.

If a coin has a major (200% pump), every pump after that one is less than the previous.

Alt season was never really a thing, and is simply a by-product of having thousands of shitcoin ICOs all entering the market at the same time. The timing of the pumps among the coins doesn't even line up well with anything.

My theory: alt coins will generally have unpredictable temporary breakouts to historic ATH on the BTC ratio. After the breakout they will continue their gradual slide from ATH to 0BTC.

There is no evidence to suggest that the coins that reached significant ATH and withdrew more than 80% will ever see another such pump again.

ETH

  • 1,440 day price history (August 7, 2015)
  • 639 days where ETHBTC ratio improved
  • 800 days where ETHBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where ETHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 14, 2015 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in ETHBTC is 99.63% of the previous day (0.37% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in ETHBTC has never been above 100% since August 21, 2015 (15 days after price started being tracked)
  • current ETHBTC ratio is 212.13% of ETHBTC ratio compared to August 7, 2015 (112.13% gain)
  • max ETHBTC ratio was 0.150957 on June 12, 2017 (764 days ago)
  • current ETHBTC ratio is 13.92% of max ETHBTC ratio (86.08% loss)
XRP
  • 2,173 day price history (August 4, 2013)
  • 943 days where XRPBTC ratio improved
  • 1,229 days where XRPBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where XRPBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since October 14, 2013 (72 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in XRPBTC is 99.62% of the previous day (0.38% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in XRPBTC has never been above 100% since October 17, 2013 (75 days after price started being tracked)
  • current XRPBTC ratio is 56.0% of XRPBTC ratio compared to August 4, 2013 (44.0% loss)
  • max XRPBTC ratio was 0.00021431 on May 17, 2017 (764 days ago)
  • current XRPBTC ratio is 14.61% of max XRPBTC ratio (85.39% loss)
BCH
  • 724 day price history (July 23, 2017)
  • 325 days where BCHBTC ratio improved
  • 398 days where BCHBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where BCHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked
  • median price each day in BCHBTC is 99.55% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in BCHBTC has never been above 100% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked)
  • current BCHBTC ratio is 19.6% of BCHBTC ratio compared to July 23, 2017 (80.4% loss)
  • max BCHBTC ratio was 0.23597981 on December 20, 2017 (573 days ago)
  • current BCHBTC ratio is 12.60% of max BCHBTC ratio (87.40% loss)
LTC
  • 2,271 day price history (April 28, 2013)
  • 982 days where LTCBTC ratio improved

  • 1,288 days where LTCBTC ratio decreased

  • the number of days where LTCBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since May 1, 2013 (4 days after price started being tracked)

  • median price each day in LTCBTC is 99.71% of the previous day (0.39% decrease per day)

  • the median daily change in LTCBTC has never been above 100% since May 2, 2013 (5 days after price started being tracked)

  • current LTCBTC ratio is 25.9% of LTCBTC ratio compared to April 28, 2013 (74.1% loss)

  • max LTCBTC ratio was 0.04204661 on November 28, 2013 (2,056 days ago)

  • current LTCBTC ratio is 19.95% of max LTCBTC ratio (80.05% loss)
EOS
  • 745 day price history (July 2, 2017)
  • 322 days where EOSBTC ratio improved
  • 422 days where EOSBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where EOSBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since July 6, 2017 (5 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in EOSBTC is 99.56% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in EOSBTC has never been above 100% since July 7, 2017 (6 days after price started being tracked)
  • current EOSBTC ratio is 93.6% of EOSBTC ratio compared to July 2, 2017 (6.4% loss)
  • max EOSBTC ratio was 0.00228685 on April 29, 2018 (443 days ago)
  • current EOSBTC ratio is 16.98% of max EOSBTC ratio (83.02% loss)
BSV
  • 249 day price history (November 9, 2018)
  • 84 days where BSVBTC ratio improved
  • 166 days where BSVBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where BSVBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in BSVBTC is 99.15% of the previous day (0.85% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in BSVBTC has never been above 100% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
  • current BSVBTC ratio is 109.1% of BSVBTC ratio compared to November 9, 2018 (9.1% gain)
  • max BSVBTC ratio was 0.03276992 on November 13, 2018 (245 days ago)
  • current BSVBTC ratio is 35.85% of max BSVBTC ratio (64.15% loss)
XLM
  • 1,807 day price history (August 5, 2014)
  • 792 days where XLMBTC ratio improved
  • 1,104 days where XLMBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where XLMBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in XLMBTC is 99.47% of the previous day (0.53% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in XLMBTC has never been above 100% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
  • current XLMBTC ratio is 198.3% of XLMBTC ratio compared to August 5, 2014 (9.1% gain)
  • max XLMBTC ratio was 0.00005896 on January 3, 2018 (559 days ago)
  • current XLMBTC ratio is 14.02% of max XLMBTC ratio (85.98% loss)
TRX
  • 672 day price history (September 13, 2017)
  • 286 days where TRXBTC ratio improved
  • 385 days where TRXBTC ratio decreased
  • the number of days where TRXBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • median price each day in TRXBTC is 99.43%of the previous day (0.57% decrease per day)
  • the median daily change in TRXBTC has never been above 100% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
  • current TRXBTC ratio is 436.9% of TRXBTC ratio compared to September 12, 2017 (336.9% gain)
  • max TRXBTC ratio was 0.00001333 on January 4, 2018 (558 days ago)
  • current TRXBTC ratio is 16.78% of max TRXBTC ratio (83.22% loss)

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/...here_ever/



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  Bump and Run Reversal
Posted by: freeforex20 - 07-03-2019, 10:14 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Bump and Run Reversal
The pattern was originally named the Bump and Run Formation, or BARF. Bulkowski decided that Wall Street was not ready for such an acronym and changed the name to Bump and Run Reversal. Bulkowski identified three main phases to the pattern: lead-in, bump, and run. We will examine these phases and also look at  Forex Signals  volume and pattern validation.
 
1.     Lead-in Phase: The first part of the pattern is a lead-in phase that can last 1 month or longer and forms the basis from which to draw the trend line. During this phase, prices advance in an orderly manner and there is no excess speculation. The trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable. The size of the angle will depend on the scaling (semi-log or arithmetic) and the size of the chart. It is probably easier to judge the soundness of the trend line with a visual assessment.


2.    Bump Phase: The bump forms with a sharp advance, and prices move further away from the lead-in trend line. Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure the angles, then a visual assessment will suffice.


3.    Bump Validity: It is important that the bump represent a speculative advance that cannot be sustained for a long time. Bulkowski developed what he calls an “arbitrary” measuring technique to validate the level of speculation in the bump. The distance from the highest high of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the highest high in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line. An example is provided in the chart below.


4.    Bump Rollover: After speculation dies down, prices begin to peak and a top forms. Sometimes, a small double top or a series of descending peaks forms instead. Prices begin to decline towards the lead-in trend line, and the right side of the bump forms.


5.    Volume: As the stock advances during the lead-in phase, volume is usually average and sometimes low. When the speculative advance begins to form the left side of the bump, volume expands as the advance accelerates.


6.    Run Phase: The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line. Prices will sometimes hesitate or bounce off the trend line before breaking through. Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the decline continues.


7.    Support Turns Resistance: After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound resistance level. Potential support-turned-resistance levels can also be identified from the reaction lows within the bump.


The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to  Forex Signals  daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can be just as ferocious.

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  Triple Bottom Reversal
Posted by: signals20 - 06-27-2019, 03:26 AM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Triple Bottom Reversal
The Triple Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. There are three equal lows followed by a break above resistance. As major reversal patterns, these patterns usually form over a 3- to 6-month period. Note that a Triple Bottom Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from Triple Bottom Breakdown on a P&F chart. Namely, Triple Bottom Breakouts on P&F charts are bearish patterns that mark a downside support break. We will first examine the individual parts of the pattern and then look at an example.
 
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there should be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Triple Bottom Reversal, a clear downtrend should precede the formation.
 
Three Lows: All three lows should be reasonably equal, well-spaced and mark significant turning points. The lows do not have to be exactly equal, but should be reasonably equivalent.
 
Volume: As the Triple Bottom Reversal develops, overall volume levels usually decline. Volume sometimes increases near the lows. After the third low, an expansion of volume on the advance and at the resistance breakout greatly reinforces the soundness of the pattern.
 
Resistance Break: As with many other reversal patterns, the Triple Bottom Reversal is not complete until a resistance breakout. The highest point of the formation, which would be the highest of the intermittent highs, marks resistance.
 
Resistance Turns Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support, and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction.
 
Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to lows can be measured and added to the resistance break for a price target. The longer the pattern develops, the more significant is the ultimate breakout. Triple Bottom Reversals that are 6 or more months in duration represent major bottoms and a price target is less likely to be effective.
 
As the Triple Bottom Reversal develops, it can start to resemble a number of patterns. Before the third low forms, the pattern may look like a Double Bottom Reversal. Three equal lows can also be found in a descending triangle or rectangle. Of these patterns mentioned, only the descending triangle has bearish overtones; the others are neutral until a breakout occurs. Similarly, the Triple Bottom Reversal should also be treated as a neutral pattern until a breakout occurs. The ability to hold support is bullish, but demand has not won the battle until resistance is broken. Volume on the last advance can sometimes yield a clue. If there is a sharp increase in volume and momentum, then the chances of a breakout increase.

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  Triple Top Reversal pattern
Posted by: signals20 - 06-21-2019, 10:32 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

 
Triple Top Reversal pattern
The Triple Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. There are three equal highs followed by a break below support. As major reversal patterns, these patterns usually form over a 3 to 6 month period. Note that a Triple Top Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from Triple Top Breakout on a P&F chart.. Namely, Triple Top Breakouts on P&F charts are bullish patterns that mark an upside resistance breakout. We will first examine the individual parts of the pattern and then look at an example.
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there should be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Triple Top Reversal, an uptrend should precede the formation.
 
Three Highs: All three highs should be reasonably equal, well spaced and mark clear turning points to establish resistance. The highs do not have to be exactly equal, but should be reasonably equivalent to each other.
 
Volume: As the Triple Top Reversal develops, overall volume levels usually decline. Volume sometimes increases near the highs. After the third high, an expansion of volume on the subsequent decline and at the support break greatly reinforces the soundness of the pattern.
 
Support Break: As with many other reversal patterns, the Triple Top Reversal is not complete until a support break. The lowest point of the formation, which would be the lowest of the intermittent lows, marks this key support level.
 
Support Turns Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance, and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a subsequent reaction rally.
 
Price Target: The distance from the support break to the highs can be measured and subtracted from the support break for a price target. The longer the pattern develops, the more significant the ultimate break. Triple Top Reversals that are 6 or more months old represent major tops and a price target is less likely to be effective.
 
Throughout the development of the Triple Top Reversal, it can start to resemble a number of other patterns. Before the third high forms, the pattern may look like a Double Top Reversal. Three equal highs can also be found in an ascending triangle or rectangle. Of these patterns mentioned, only the ascending triangle has bullish overtones; the others are neutral until a break occurs. In this same vein, the Triple Top Reversal should also be treated as a neutral pattern until a breakdown occurs. The inability to break above resistance is bearish, but the bears have not won the battle until support is broken. Volume on the last decline off resistance can sometimes yield a clue. If there is a sharp increase in volume and momentum, then the chances of a support break increase.

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  The Rounding Bottom
Posted by: freeforex20 - 06-13-2019, 01:09 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

The Rounding Bottom
The Rounding Bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.
 
Prior Trend: In order to be a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the low of a rounding bottom will mark a new low or reaction low. In practice, there are occasions when the low is recorded many months earlier and the security trades flat before forming the pattern. When the rounding bottom does finally form, its low may not be the lowest low of the last few months.
Decline: The first portion of the rounding bottom is the decline that leads to the low of the pattern. This decline can take on different forms: some are quite jagged with a number of reaction highs and lows, while others trade lower in a more linear fashion.
Low: The low of the rounding bottom can resemble a “V” bottom, but should not be too sharp and should take a few weeks to form. Because prices are in a long-term decline, the possibility of a selling climax exists that could create a lower spike.
Advance: The advance off of the lows forms the right half of the pattern and should take about the same amount of time as the prior decline. If the advance is too sharp, then the validity of a rounding bottom may be in question.
Breakout: Bullish confirmation comes when the pattern breaks above the reaction high that marked the beginning of the decline at the start of the pattern. As with most resistance breakouts, this level can become support. However, rounding bottoms represent long-term reversal and this new support level may not be that significant.
Volume: In an ideal pattern, volume levels will track the shape of the rounding bottom: high at the beginning of the decline, low at the end of the decline and rising during the advance. Volume levels are not too important on the decline, but there should be an increase in volume on the advance and preferably on the breakout.
A rounding bottom could be thought of as a head and shoulders bottom without readily identifiable shoulders. The head represents the low and is fairly central to the pattern. The volume levels throughout the pattern mimic those of the head and shoulders bottom; confirmation comes with a resistance breakout. While symmetry is preferable on the rounding bottom, the left and right side do not have to be equal in time or slope. The important thing is to capture the essence of the pattern.

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  Rising Wedge and forex signals
Posted by: freeforex20 - 06-04-2019, 10:00 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Rising Wedge and forex signals
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.
 
While though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.
 
Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.
 
Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
 
Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
 
Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
 
Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
 
Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.
 
The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.
 

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  Falling Wedge
Posted by: freeforex20 - 05-31-2019, 08:31 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Falling Wedge
The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs.
While this article will focus on the falling wedge as a reversal pattern, it can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.
 
Prior Trend: To qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.
 
Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous highs.
 
Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.
 
Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less negative slope than the upper resistance line.
 
Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level.
 
Volume: While volume is not particularly important on rising wedges, it is an essential ingredient to confirm a falling wedge breakout. Without an expansion of volume, the breakout will lack conviction and be vulnerable to failure.
 
As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.

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  Head and Shoulders Top
Posted by: freeforex20 - 05-26-2019, 12:35 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Head and Shoulders Top
 
A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.
 
As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.
 
Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).
 
Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.
 
Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
 
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
 
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.
 
Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
 
Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.
 
Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
 
Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
 

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  Double Bottom Reversal
Posted by: freeforex20 - 05-21-2019, 04:21 PM - Forum: Blawks - No Replies

Double Bottom Reversal
The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.
 
Note that a Double Bottom Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from Double Bottom Breakdown on a P&F chart. Namely, Double Bottom Breakdowns on P&F charts are bearish patterns that mark a downside support break.
 
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) Double Bottom Reversal example chart from StockCharts.com
 
Although there can be variations, the classic Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can form during a downtrend, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.
 
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.
 
First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.
 
Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.
 
Second Trough: The decline off of the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver; typically, a trough within 3% of its predecessor is considered valid.
 
Advance From Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top. There should be clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.
 
Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. Like advances, these should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.
 
Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.
 
Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.
 
It is important to remember that the Double Bottom Reversal is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer to form than tops; patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. Volume indicators such as Chaikin Money Flow, OBV and Accumulation/Distribution can be used to look for signs of buying pressure. Just as with the double top, it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.
 

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